No Capitulation = No Bottom [FinancialSense]
June 9, 2012 Leave a comment
Wash, rinse, repeat—that has been the script since 2010. Fading monetary and fiscal stimulus leads to a slowdown as economies can’t support themselves and then in come central banks to the rescue and off we go! We are currently in the period in which the third round of global monetary stimulus that began in 2011 is all but over and global markets and economies are weakening as a result.
According to Bridgewater Associates, the third round of monetary stimulus amounted to 2.8% of global GDP and at the end of May the remaining portion was down to 0.4% of global GDP. Unless policy makers step up for a fourth round of global monetary stimulus the path of least resistance appears down. In both 2010 and 2011 we saw major market capitulation in which investors threw in the towel and sent markets reeling. This causes central banks to spring into action and off markets go. Because we have not seen major capitulation and panic in the markets we may not see central bank action just yet, which leaves the markets in a precarious position. If we are to follow the 2010-2011 script we are likely to see lower prices ahead with less bearish participation (fewer stocks falling) which finally causes central banks to act followed by a strong market recovery. Until we see capitulation in the markets I would stay defensive and let the dust settle a bit.