Goldman: 75% chance the Fed will ease at next meeting [SoberLook]


Goldman’s latest research suggests that the Fed is likely to ease at the next meeting this month. This assesment is primarily based on their proprietary indicator called the GS Financials Conditions Index (GSFCI). As a backdrop, they point out that the US economy has slowed, as shown in the chart below. Both the nonfarm payroll growth and the CAI index (Goldman’s index of broad economic activity) have declined sharply.

At the same time the Financial Conditions Index has shown a substantial tightening.

 

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