Translation by Google
According to calculations by Christian Saint Stephen, professor at CNAM, the fiscal shock of Francois Hollande is expected to exceed 14% of the gross operating surplus of French companies, the fiscal shock is most important that they have been subjected since World War II.
By Jean-Jacques Netter.
Article published in collaboration with the Institute of Freedom .
No concrete proposals came out of the G8 summit to boost growth. This seems logical when considering the outline plans that compete in Europe. France has a curious position. Its strategy is to subject companies to tax violent shock. If the program of Francois Hollande is applied in full, they will indeed have to pay € 32.7 billion of tax increases, 13Md € of rising social security contributions, or 45.7 billion € of additional levies. According to calculations by Christian Saint Stephen, professor at CNAM, it could represent more than 14% of their gross operating surplus, or the largest tax impact they have had to endure since World War II.
These provisions demonstrate once again that politicians and media do not seem to realize that the profits of SMEs are not those of CAC 40 companies, which are mainly outside France! Meanwhile, the tools of the welfare state continues to be demolished by the globalization of solidarity is killed by a dual labor market with those in the system and those who are not (young). The republican elitism is killed by a school in check.Innovation is killed by the egalitarianism of researchers. The middle class is killed by atrophy of the industry …
The setback to the public debt does not appear clearly on track. Yet it should stop the digging of the main inequality which is inequality between generations. It belongs to the generation in power to pay the bills of its excesses, and not to his children and grandchildren. The role of policy is to prepare ourselves, which is not easy in a country where nearly half of voters are civil servants or retired!
Germany, which has been very successful with its SMEs, the famous German Mittelstand particularly successful export, prepares a six-point plan to support growth in the troubled countries of the eurozone. It includes the establishment of free zones in the states affected by the crisis in order to attract foreign investors. Parallel states will have to reform their labor markets to the German model.
Britain has as usual a pragmatic strategy that leaves the idea that are small businesses that are likely to create as quickly as possible jobs. That is why it favors SMEs with the implementation of the Small Business Act,which is to encourage entrepreneurs by tax benefits at the launch of their company by investors exemptions from capital gains to a certain amount and counselor with the Small Business Service, which is a single point of administration to help entrepreneurs in their efforts. This measure appears to be effective because we can see now that a flow of British tax exiles are now returning to their country to start businesses and pay taxes with a marginal portion has been lowered!
The fate of Europe and the sustainability of the euro will depend in part on the outcome of the Greek elections of 17 June. Without clear vision, investors are hanging on the soundbites of European leaders.
The worrying situation is no reason to totally sink into pessimism. Ken told the Economist Research Director of the IMF, which was a great success with his book “This time is different. Eight centuries of financial folly, “was a guest of the seminar Cheuvreux in London, we could have good surprises, as globalization inevitably requires all countries to adapt and technology can bring unexpected ruptures that solve problems considered insoluble …
The really good news is perhaps a Financial Times article titled “Death of actions.” The last time it was used as it was in 1979. And the U.S. market had risen almost continuously for 20 years!
Equities: the re-industrialization of America is committed
In Europe, the valuations are attractive horizon to ten years we explained Russell Napier of CLSA. The problem, he says, is for the coming year … For Christopher Potts, Chief Economist of Cheuvreux, Europe is currently in an ambulance, the United States are not for once the heart of anguish markets and fears. As for China, it’s like a bull in a china shop. He thinks that European markets are expected to recover from the third quarter.
In Germany, wages of employees joined the union IG Metall will be increased by 4.3% over the next 13 months.This is positive news for the rest of Europe. It comes as the manufacturing PMI is found at 45 its lowest for 35 months. Jens Weidmann, head of the Bundesbank remains exceptionally devoted to what the austerity of its central bank should continue.
In Greece, the encryption on the cost of an output of Greece’s Euro multiply. They go up to € 450Md David Hauner of BOAML. It is really amazing to see that Europe has not been able to solve the problem of time in Greece, which represented only 2% of European GDP. If Greece out of Euro, no country would imitate still thinkBruno Cavalier, head of economic research at Oddo Securities.
Italy is in a deep recession with GDP projected to decline by 2% in 2012 and 1% in 2013. The only positive factor is the improvement of trade balance. Tito Boeri, an economics professor at Bocconi University in Milan, regrets that the reform of the labor market was not far enough. For him, wage developments should be linked to productivity. He thinks that Mario Monti remain at his post until April 2013.
The United States are beginning to reindustrialise high speed through a fall in labor costs in some states: $ 20 an hour in Louisiana or Alabama against $ 34 in the northern states and 46 to $ 47 in Europe . With the massive use of shale gas cost of energy will decline sharply and reduce their dependency on oil producing countries. We are witnessing a return of American supremacy think Christopher Potts Cheuvreux. What is changing is that more of cheap credit, we will have cheap capital. This means that the outperformance of U.S. stocks will accelerate as it is practically the only country that can offer growth (technology) and security.